DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT Increasing Educational Attainment In Maryland A

draft draft draft increasing educational attainment in maryland: a discussion of challenges and issues facing maryland and the usm

DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
Increasing Educational Attainment in Maryland: A Discussion of
Challenges
and Issues Facing Maryland and the USM
The Policy Question/Issue:
What would a statewide goal of 55% educational degree attainment by
2025 mean for the USM and its institutions? What strategies must USM
institutions, as well as other segments of the state’s postsecondary
system, engage in to achieve this goal?
Background to the Issue
Although the United States has historically been a world leader in the
proportion of its citizens with a college education, it has
experienced a rapid erosion of that advantage in recent years.
According to the OECD, the U.S. ranks 10th among industrialized
nations in the percentage of 25-34 year olds with college degrees.
More alarming is that fact that the U.S. is one of only two countries
in the industrialized world where 25-34 year olds are less
well-educated than 35-44 year olds. Finally, the tremendous
inefficiency exhibited by the U.S. higher education system—the nation
ranks among the world’s poorest performers in moving students from
admission to graduation—adds an additional element to these
performance concerns.
In 2008, The College Board’s National Commission on Access,
Admissions, and Success in Higher Education, released a landmark
report entitled, “Coming to Our Senses: Education and the American
Future.” In the report, 28 school, college, university , and
government leaders, led by the group’s chair, USM Chancellor Brit
Kirwan, and co-chair, University of Southern California Vice Provost
Jerome Lucido, called for a national initiative designed to ensure
that at least 55% of Americans hold a postsecondary credential by
2025. Noting that the U.S. already had lost its leadership position in
high school completion and was rapidly sinking toward the bottom of
the industrialized countries in postsecondary education attainment
rates, the Commission identified 10 core strategies that every state
should undertake to reverse these troubling trends:
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Make preschool education universally available to children from
low income families,
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Improve middle and high school counseling
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Implement research-proven dropout prevention programs
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Align K-12 education systems with international standards and
college admissions expectations
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Improve the quality of teachers and the retention of them
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Clarify and simplify admissions processes
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Provide more need-based financial aid, while making the financial
aid process more transparent
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Keep college affordable
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Dramatically improve college completion rates, and
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Provide more postsecondary education opportunities as an essential
element of adult education programs.
At risk, the Commission noted, was nothing less than America’s “great
global educational competitive edge.”
Consistent with the Commission’s position, President Obama, in 2009,
issued a new challenge for the nation: “By 2020, America will once
again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.”
Moving to lay out strategies for achieving this 2020 goal, the Obama
White House identified -- as did the Commission in the “Coming to Our
Senses” report -- the need to improve performance in a concerted way
along the nation’s entire P-20 education spectrum. Thus the federal
government has come up with initiatives that seek to 1) reverse 40
years of declining high school graduation rates and raise learning
standards to globally competitive levels (through its “Common Core
Standards” initiative), 2) overhaul key areas of the federal financial
aid process in order to use the savings to help expand aid to needy
students, 3) provide expanded access and improve student success
through initiatives in such areas as community college construction
and renovation, and e-learning innovation and development, and 4)
increase capital and operational support in targeted areas of basic
research and development. By linking these initiatives to what is one
of the largest funding increases in the history of the U.S. Department
of Education, in total, the President has dramatically underscored his
commitment to raising education standards, expanding access, and
increasing educational attainment nationwide.
The Statewide 55% Goal and Its Rationale
Within Maryland, Governor O’Malley has followed the lead of President
Obama, and the recommendations of the Commission’s "Coming to Our
Senses Report,” in calling for improved educational attainment, and
establishing a specific statewide goal of 55%.2 While the Governor’s
goal differs slightly from President Obama’s in its ambitious emphasis
on full degree completion, both goals are based on the desire to equal
or exceed the performance of the best international competitors (South
Korea and Japan top the list of those competitors and will move to
around 55% educational attainment by 2025). The rationale for setting
such a goal is economic. Businesses and government agencies with
high-skill, high-paying jobs are drawn to states or countries with
highly-educated populations. They, in turn, attract high skill workers
from other states and countries, thereby establishing a feedback loop
going forward. Colorado is an example of a state that significantly
increased its education level (and gave tax breaks to industry) and is
reaping the benefits. If one compares that state with Wyoming or New
Mexico (two states that shared much of Colorado’s economic and
educational profile 20 years ago, but made different policy choices
and now perform at a significantly lower level) it is possible to see
the impact that investment in education can have on a state’s economic
future. Maryland is well positioned today, but in the future we will
be challenged for jobs and graduates by domestic and international
competitors.
To help jump start the pipeline that will result in increased degree
attainment in Maryland, the state’s P-20 Leadership Council created
two state-wide task forces. The first, the Governor’s STEM Task Force,
co-chaired by Chancellor Kirwan and MBRT Executive Director June
Streckfus, laid out a set of seven policy recommendations and an
actionable timeline that serve as strong grounding for graduating more
STEM ready high school students, and channeling them into STEM majors
in college. The second task force supports the first: The Governor’s
College Success Task Force, co-chaired by State Superintendent Nancy
Grasmick and Maryland Higher Education Secretary James Lyons, defines
college readiness as a level of knowledge and skill that result in
dramatically higher high school graduation standards and, thus,
backward-maps standards to kindergarten in order to populate the
pipeline to reach the 55% attainment goal.
What Is Required to Reach the Statewide 55% Goal?
Currently, Maryland’s public and independent institutions produce just
over 37,000 bachelor’s and associate’s degrees a year. Of these the
USM produces around 18,000 degrees, almost all at the baccalaureate
level, while Maryland’s independent institutions contribute an
additional 8,000 bachelor’s degrees and its community colleges produce
approximately 11,000 associate’s degrees. Because of the natural
increase in higher education enrollments in Maryland that will occur
as a result of the lingering effects of the baby boom echo, the total
number of degrees produced by all institutions in the state is
expected to continue to rise to 45,000 by 2025 without additional
intervention. However, to attain a level of degree production
necessary to reach 55%, Maryland must go beyond current projections
and produce 58,000 degrees per year. This will require a total
increase of between 20,000 and 23,000 new degrees annually by 2025.
Figure 1, below, shows how this increase is projected to impact the
segments in Maryland. Note that these numbers include the increase
expected to come as a result of “natural” enrollment growth (3,000 for
USM and 4,000 combined for MACC and MICUA institutions) and “new
initiatives” (7,000 for USM and 7,500 combined for MACC and MICUA
institutions).
Figure 1

What Are the Consequences if Maryland Does Not Reach the 55% Goal?
According to a recent NCHEMS report, Maryland has a current college
education attainment rate of 44% for 25-64 year olds, making it one of
the leading states in the nation (Massachusetts leads with a 49%
level). Due to unique demographic characteristics, however, Maryland,
in the future, will be hard pressed to hold, let alone improve on, its
standing among other states on this key measure. Because Maryland’s
degree attainment is more evenly distributed among its 25-64
population than in other states, where the most highly-educated
populations tend to be disproportionately younger, it will not benefit
to the same degree as other states from the natural progression of
population growth and aging. As a result, Maryland, failing to
implement new strategies or activities aimed at achieving the
Governor’s goal, is likely to see its educational attainment rate
climb by no more than three to four percentage points over the coming
decade and a half (coming in at 48% by 2025). In comparison, by that
same point, at least eight other states, many of them Maryland’s
economic competitors, will have achieved educational attainment rates
of 55% or higher simply through the natural process of population
growth and aging (Massachusetts, for instance, is projected to see the
percentage of its population with a college degree increase to 66% by
2025). If Maryland does not act strategically to increase its higher
education attainment beyond the rate currently projected, it will lose
a key competitive edge.
What Is the USM’ Role in the Hitting the Statewide 55% Goal?
As Maryland’s public system of postsecondary education, the USM must
play a leading role if the 55% statewide goal is to be achieved. This
role includes taking in an additional 36,000 students and producing
10,000 additional baccalaureates a year by 2020 (3,000 of which will
result from the current rising enrollment). Success in the role will
require changes in the following policy areas: enrollment,
articulation and transfer, student achievement, STEM programming,
regional center expansion, and coordination of efforts with other
higher education segments.
It is critical to note, however, that the USM cannot meet the state’s
goal by itself, even if it were to act on each of the strategies
discussed below. The statewide goal will only be met through a
combination of strategies developed and implemented by the state’s
state education agencies and institutions working in partnership.
These strategies include, at the K-12 level, implementation of the
recommendations from the College Success Task Force (e.g., adoption of
national Common Core Standards, raising high school graduation
requirements, and certifying students as “college-ready”—policies that
must be in place if Maryland is to succeed in its goal) and, at the
postsecondary level, strategies designed to increase enrollments and
graduation rates at all of the state’s two-year and four-year
institutions, public or private.
Even under the best of circumstances, increasing the state’s
educational attainment to the desired levels will require sustained
effort at a level of degree production well above current levels and
involving all Maryland education institutions. The following
discussion outlines strategies the USM should take, or continue to
take, unilaterally and in conjunction with the other higher education
and P-12 segments in the state. Some are already ongoing. Some will be
new. All will be vital to the state’s eventual success.
USM Specific Strategies
1. Increase enrollment at USM institutions by at least 36,000 by 2018
In order to meet the degree production goals outlined above, the USM
will have to increase enrollment levels substantially, particularly at
the baccalaureate level. This is possible because the total demand for
enrollment in USM institutions is, and will remain, high. However, in
order to effectively graduate the numbers discussed, the retention and
graduation rates at USM institutions will also have to rise
substantially.
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Meeting demand would increase the current USM enrollment from a
headcount of approximately 149,000 today to 174,000 by 2018.
Current planning for enrollment growth will result in a slow
growth to approximately that level over the next ten years.
However, some of the initiatives under discussion, particularly
with regard to community colleges, could accelerate this expansion
of enrollment. The impact of such initiatives would be that the
balance of transfer students to traditional freshmen would be
likely to shift from the current ratio of one to one to
two-to-one, with close to two-thirds of all USM students coming
from transfer institutions.
*
At the same time, enhanced retention resulting from ongoing USM
initiatives aimed at improving retention and closing the
achievement gap would result in the addition of between 11,000 and
12,000 students. This change would be “inside the box” resulting
from students who would have dropped-out prior to completing their
degrees being retained for multiple additional years. Second-year
retention would need to rise relatively modestly from just over
80% to over 85%, but the third- and fourth-year figures would also
have to rise from the low 70% range in the fourth year to at least
80%. These changes would effectively raise the total enrollment
well beyond the level of enrollment demand (174,000) cited above.
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If these conditions were met, total USM headcount enrollment by
2018 could be approximately 185,000—or 36,000 additional students.3
Figure 2 below demonstrates how meeting current and projected demand,
in combination with improved retention efforts at USM institutions and
articulation with Maryland community colleges, could result in total
enrollment at USM institutions reaching 185,000 by 2018.
Figure 2

Figure 3, below, demonstrates the rebalancing of the first-time
freshmen to transfer student ratio that is likely to occur within the
USM over the next decade if the above initiatives are successful and
185,000 students are enrolled.
Figure 3

2. Expand USM regional center operations in underserved areas of the
state
The growth of USM’s regional centers, particularly in the I-270
Corridor and in Northern Maryland--areas that currently lack a public
4-year institution--will be vital to ensuring that higher education is
available to growing portions of the state and significant numbers of
Marylanders who might not otherwise have access to a four-year degree.
Areas that will prove (or continue to prove) critical to USM success
in achieving its goals are
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Montgomery and Frederick Counties , where 1 in 5 people in
Maryland currently live, and more than half of the state’s
Hispanic population lives, and
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Aberdeen Proving Grounds, where due to the BRAC process, Maryland
is scheduled to see an influx of 10,000 employees and as many as
triple that number of dependents and associated workers.
Based on current space capacity, the two USM regional centers at Shady
Grove and Hagerstown could effectively serve an additional 2,000-2,500
headcount students in their traditional face-to-face and hybrid
on-line formats if enrollment and programmatic funding were made
available. This would allow total USM enrollment to grow to
approximately 5,0001 headcount students at the two centers. If the USM
is to help Maryland achieve the 55% attainment goal, however, even
this level of growth might not be sufficient. The USM may need to
invest in adding additional physical capacity to one or more of these
centers, as well as investing in other centers in underserved areas of
the state—Montgomery County, Frederick County, Harford County, etc.—if
it is to reach the governor’s goal. If sufficient investment were made
by the BOR, headcount enrollment at USM’s two existing centers alone
could reach as high as 7,000 by 2020.
3. Promote the effective use of E-Learning and related technologies to
enhance access and efficiency, and improve Learning
To add 36,000 students in the coming decade—the equivalent of building
a new university the size of College Park—would involve tremendous
additions to the physical plant of USM institutions if it were done
primarily via traditional teaching and learning. However, the
continued adoption and effective use of on-line learning and new
instructional technologies could help to alleviate some of the
pressures placed on campus physical plants.
Over the past nine years, on-line learning at USM institutions has
grown tremendously, with the number of individual course enrollments
in USM distance education programs going from just over 72,000 in FY
2000 to 183,000 in FY 2009 (up 154%). Driving this popularity is the
flexibility of online programs, which offer students learning
opportunities that match their multi-tasking lifestyles and varied
career goals, and offer institutions the ability to scale offerings of
high-demand courses regardless of classroom space availability or the
traditional confines of the academic calendar. At the same time, the
USM has also focused on using technology to improve student learning
through its three-year experiment with the academic course redesign
initiative.
To meet its 2020 enrollment and attainment goals, the USM must
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Expand the number of courses and degree programs offered either
fully online or as hybrids in order to maximize instructional
capacity,
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Encourage a variety of approaches to the identification and
adoption of new learning technologies at USM institutions,
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Continue the Board’s commitment to improved student learning
through the expansion of the principles and lessons learned under
the Maryland Course Redesign Initiative (MCRI) to other areas of
the academic model, particularly large-enrollment, introductory
courses.
The System’s ability to raise funds to expand MCRI, whose success in
achieving its goals of improving student success (i.e., pass rates)
and reducing costs for both the student and institution has been
proven, will be boosted by a recent grant to USM from the Lumina
Foundation to support additional course redesign projects.
4. Focus on closing the achievement gap
The primary current strategy for improving graduation rates on USM
campuses is the Systemwide Initiative to Close the Achievement Gap.
Given the demographics in Maryland, these efforts will remain vital.
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The U.S. Department of Education reports degree attainment among
25-29 year old varies dramatically by race/ethnic group. In 2008,
37% of Whites and 58% of Asians had at least a bachelor’s degree
versus 20% of Blacks and 12% of Hispanics. These poor attainment
levels are also the case in Maryland.
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The number of white students graduating Maryland High schools
continues to decline while the number of Blacks and Hispanics
continue to grow rapidly. By 2021, these two minority groups will
constitute 53% of the high school graduating class in Maryland.
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If the achievement gap is not closed degree attainment of 25-29
year olds in Maryland may actually decline by 2025.
Strategies the USM Must Undertake In Coordination with Other Segments
1. Improve articulation and transfer with Maryland community colleges
Maryland’s community colleges have been, and must continue to be a
major focus of statewide planning if the 55% goal is to be met.
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Within the community colleges, a key strategy will include the
application of course redesign to developmental coursework,
“reclaiming” students who have withdrawn and placing them back on
a path to either associate’s degrees and/or transfer, and
encouraging these students to complete their associate’s degree
before transferring.
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At USM institutions, fully articulated transfer programs (e.g.
AAT, ASE and Nursing), reverse transfer of credit and the simple
increase in volume of fully-qualified transfer students will
significantly increase the number of transfer students seeking
admission. The reverse transfer of credit will place the USM
institutions in the position of working with the community
colleges to ensure that associate’s degrees are awarded when the
student is eligible.
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The combination of these initiatives is expected to yield as many
as 6,000 additional degrees per year for Maryland as a whole. It
will also potentially add as much as 40% to the number of transfer
students entering the USM. This will cause the entering class from
community colleges to be consistently larger than that of
first-time freshmen.
2. Identify and reclaim “Stalled Students”
Work completed by the Maryland State Team for the Lumina Making
Opportunity Affordable (MOA) grant identified the loss of “late
career” students as a major source of concern. Of students who achieve
junior status, 23% are no longer enrolled and have not graduated 3
years later. Among these same students, 3% have not advanced from
junior level and 9% are still enrolled but have not reached a degree.
Thus, after completing 2 full years of higher education, more than a
third of students have either failed to receive a degree or are at
significant risk of failure. For these reasons, Reclaiming Stalled
Students was identified in the MOA grant application as a major
strategy for improving degree productivity. It is estimated that if
50% of these students were put back on track to attain a degree, it
could yield more than 3,000 additional degrees per year.
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The USM should work with the Maryland State Team to ensure that
“late career” students are identified and policies are put in
place to allow them to efficiently finish their last two years at
a USM institution.
3. Improve inter-institutional and inter-segmental coordination
Effectively pursuing many of the strategies needed to meet the
enrollment and graduation levels discussed will require a high level
of cooperation between institutions within the USM, between the USM
and other higher education segments, and between higher education and
other state and private entities. Some keys to that cooperation will
include:
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Maryland P-20 Council – The P-20 Council has become the central
forum for discussing and planning statewide education issues. It
has provided leadership on alignment of high school and college
curriculum, STEM issues, and seeking statewide federal education
grants. As the USM representative on the P-20 Council, the USM
chancellor should continue to serve a leadership role, envisioning
and facilitating coordinating cross-segmental programs and
initiatives.
*
USM-Community College Coordination – Over the past decade, the USM
has worked effectively with the Maryland Association of Community
Colleges (MACC) to improve the transfer process and give thousands
of students seamless access to bachelor degree programs at the
state's four-year institutions. Expanding this cooperation to
implement or expand initiatives, such as a new reverse credit
transfer or additional fully-articulated transfer programs, will
be a significant but necessary challenge if the statewide goal is
to be met. The USM must continue to work with MACC and the other
segments to put in place the cooperative committee structures, as
well as the programs, that are necessary for success.
Conclusion: The Best Case – Summarizing What Might be Done
If successful, the strategies for boosting degree production discussed
above combined with the “natural” increase in the production of
degrees that is projected to result from Maryland’s baby boom echo
could result in an increase of as many as 22,000 new degrees per year
(associate’s to bachelor’s) being generated across Maryland’s higher
education institutions by 2025. Figure 4, below, shows the degree
targets each segment in Maryland must hit if Maryland is to achieve
the Governor’s goal.
Figure 4

The USM would be responsible for producing just under half of the
increase needed--approximately 10,000 degrees per year beyond current
production levels. While achievable, this goal represents a major
stretch for the USM, and all segments of the state’s postsecondary
education system.
1 Based on USG and USMHG projections.
2 The specific goal year by which the 55% is to be attained has varied
in different state documents and statements. The 2009 application by
the USM to the Lumina Foundation’s Making Opportunity Affordable Grant
Program used a 55% by 2020 figure, while the letter written by MHEC in
support of the application cites the year 2025. This white paper uses
the 2025 goal year recommended by the College Board’s National
Commission on Access, Admissions, and Success in Higher Education.
3 Since most of the growth required to achieve the USM’s portion of
the 55% goal would occur at the baccalaureate level, this 185,000
enrollment would not include growth of graduate and first professional
programs. If the growth in USM graduate programs were to follow
current projections, USM total enrollment could reach over 195,000.
11 10/5/2021