The Fifteenth Session Of The Climate Outlook Forum For

the fifteenth session of the climate outlook forum for north eurasia (neacof-15) the consensus forecast for the winter 2018/2019

The fifteenth session of the Climate Outlook Forum for North Eurasia
(NEACOF-15)
The consensus forecast for the winter 2018/2019
Background
The 15th session of North Eurasia Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-15)
was held in Moscow on November 6 to 8, 2019. It was conducted with the
assistance of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, the Main
Geophysical Observatory named after A.I.Voeikov, the Institute of
global climate and ecology, Russian Institute of hydrometeorological
information, Russian Research Institute of agricultural meteorology,
the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries.
The purpose of the NEACOF-15 was to issue a consensus forecast (CF)
for the 2018/2019 winter and run a comprehensive discussion of current
scientific and practical problems on monitoring and forecasting of
climate variability.
The forum was attended by NHMs of CIS countries, Russian and foreign
experts on long-term meteorological forecasting and climate research,
as well as researchers, lecturers, graduate students of scientific and
educational institutions with a specialization in the field of
climatology.

Evaluation of the past forecast for the winter 2017/2018 developed
during NEACOF-13
Air temperature anomalies (winter 2017-2018)

Air temperature map represented in categories “below norm”, “norm”,
“above norm” from observational network data (winter 2017/2018)

The consensus forecast of air temperature represented in categories
“below norm”, “norm”, “above norm” (winter 2017/2018)
Consensus forecast realistically reproduced the prevalence of positive
anomalies over most of the territory of northern Eurasia (north of the
European Russia, Siberia and the Far East). The exception was the
Taimyr region, where negative anomalies were predicted. In the
northern and central regions of Kazakhstan and in the southeast of
western Siberia, the observed and prognostic air temperature
categories were below normal. The below normal air temperature for the
season was observed in the Amur region, in the south of the Khabarovsk
territory and in the Primorsky region. On the prognostic map, the area
of below normal temperature in the Eastern part of the Russia was
slightly shifted relatively observed data to the north towards the
Magadan region and Kamchatka. Forecast and observed anomalies are in
agreement over the Khabarovsk territory.
Precipitation anomalies (winter 2017-2018)

Precipitation represented in categories “below norm”, “norm”, “above
norm” from observational network data (winter 2017/2018)

The consensus forecast of precipitation represented in categories
“below norm”, “norm”, “above norm” (winter 2017/2018)
Precipitation exceeded the average in most regions of the European
part of the CIS. The consensus forecast correctly reproduced the
excess of precipitation only in the north of the European Russia. Over
the rest of the European Russia deficit of precipitation with a
probability of 40 % was predicted. The consensus forecast correctly
indicated a large area of above-average precipitation over Siberia. An
area of drier than normal precipitation’s conditions in southern
Turkmenistan and Eastern Uzbekistan was also predicted correctly.
Above normal precipitation was observed in most of the territory of
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Central Kazakhstan.
Consensus forecast did not reproduced this feature.
Along with a qualitative analysis of the success of the consensus
forecasts, quantitative estimates are also presented for the first
time. The skill score of the air temperature forecast is equal 73%,
and of precipitation 64%.
A consensus forecast for the winter 2018/2018
Most hydrodynamic and statistical models predict an increase of SST
above the average in equatorial part of East Pacific. The El Niño has
a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. According to the forecasts of
most of the prognostic centers, SST above normal is predicted in the
North Pacific. Such spatial distribution of SST in the Pacific usually
leads to a strengthening of the Aleutian low. In the North Atlantic,
the signal from the ocean, connected with the positive phase of the
North Atlantic Tripol, indicates the possibility of developing the
negative phase of EA and the positive phase of NAO and consequently,
the predominance of zonal forms of atmospheric circulation in the
middle latitudes. The influence of the Siberian anticyclone may
increase in western Siberia, Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
According to the consensus outlook, the winter season of 2018/2019 is
expected to be warmer than usual in the most part of the Northern
Eurasia, in accordance with the majority of prognostic centers. The
negative temperature anomalies are more likely in Kazakhstan, Central
Asia and in the South of western Siberia. The temperature about
average is expected in the south of the Far East. There are many
uncertainties in precipitation forecasts. However, the presence of a
clear signal is observed in most regions of Siberia, as well as in
Central Asia, where an excessive precipitation is expected.
The consensus forecast is consultative information and can be applied
for specific region needs, taking into account the predictability of
atmospheric processes, regional climatic characteristics and the
quality of modern hydrodynamic models.

The consensus forecast of surface air temperature for the winter
2018/2019

The consensus precipitation forecast for the winter of 2018/2019
The North Eurasia Climate Centre (NEACC)
The 15th session of North Eurasia climate forum (NEACOF-15)